Bubble Watch: Will Joe Gibbs Racing Dominate the 2025 Cup Series?
By Cameron Richardson | October 17, 2025
The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship is heating up, with Denny Hamlin securing his spot in the Championship 4 with a thrilling win at Las Vegas. But the real question on everyone's mind is: Will Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) dominate the series?
Let's dive into the Bubble Watch and see who's trending towards a solid race at Talladega, with a focus on the teams and drivers that could make a run at the title.
(Stats provided by Racing Insights)
Denny Hamlin (ADV) - Safely above the elimination line
Kyle Larson - Points above cutline: 35, Chances of advancing: 83.2% (Trending: Hot)
Talladega Outlook: Hot - Larson's average finish of 9.6 on superspeedways is the best in the Cup series this season. He's mastering pack racing and has consistently finished in the top five at Talladega.
- Christopher Bell - Points above cutline: 20, Chances of advancing: 72.8% (Trending: Hot)
Talladega Outlook: Hit or Miss - Bell had a strong showing last season with eight top 10s in the playoffs. However, he needs a win in the next two races to secure his spot in the Championship 4. Bell's performance at Talladega has been inconsistent, with three top 10s in 11 starts and two DNFs in the last three races.
- Chase Briscoe - Points above cutline: 15, Chances of advancing: 54.2% (Trending: Warm)
Talladega Outlook: Cold - Briscoe's crew chief, James Small, made a bold move at Las Vegas with a two-tire stop, resulting in a top five finish. However, Talladega will be a challenge for Briscoe, who has only two top 10s in nine starts at the track.
- William Byron - Points below cutline: 15, Chances of advancing: 26.5% (Trending: Going Cold)
Talladega Outlook: Hot - Byron's playoff misfortunes took a turn for the worse when he collided with Ty Dillon at Las Vegas. Despite this setback, Talladega has been kind to Byron, with consistent finishes in the top seven since the spring of 2023.
- Chase Elliott - Points below cutline: 23, Chances of advancing: 25.1% (Trending: Cooling Off)
Talladega Outlook: Hit or Miss - Elliott's playoff run took a hit at Las Vegas due to an untimely tire penalty. While he's a two-time winner at Talladega, his recent success has been inconsistent, with top 10s in two of the last four races.
- Joey Logano - Points below cutline: 24, Chances of advancing: 15.8% (Trending: Warming Up)
Talladega Outlook: Ice Cold (but leading laps) - Logano's finish of sixth at Las Vegas was crucial to avoid a must-win situation. However, his best finish in the Gen 7 era at Talladega is 19th, and he has led only 117 laps in the Gen 7 era.
- Ryan Blaney - Points below cutline: 31, Chances of advancing: 22.4% (Trending: Ice Cold)
Talladega Outlook: Ice Cold - Blaney's recent performances at Talladega have been concerning. Since his win in New Hampshire, his best finish has been 13th at the Charlotte Roval. His best finish at Talladega since 2023? 20th. He's also crashed out in the last two races.
So, will Joe Gibbs Racing dominate the 2025 Cup Series? It's anyone's guess, but with Hamlin's strong showing and the potential for chaos at Talladega, the championship is far from over.
